Perimeter bakery sales in December 2024 contributed to slight overall growth in the bakery category for the year, according to food market research firm 210 Analytics.
For the 52 weeks ending 29 December 2024, total bakery sales (including fixed- and random-weight products) increased by 0.5% year-on-year to $48.5 billion, although unit volume remained flat, based on US multi-outlet data from Circana. Fresh bakery departments experienced a 1.2% rise in dollar sales to $21.4 billion, with unit sales mirroring this increase. This growth offset a 0.1% dip in dollar sales and a 0.7% decline in unit sales for the centre-store bakery category.
December Sales Highlights
In December, perimeter bakery sales declined slightly, with dollar sales down 0.3% to $1.9 billion. However, unit volume inched up by 0.1%. Conversely, aisle bakery sales dropped by 0.9% to $2 billion in dollars and 1.1% in units.
Anne-Marie Roerink, President of 210 Analytics, noted the impact of the reporting period’s cut-off date of 29 December versus 31 December in 2023. This discrepancy likely shifted some New Year’s sales to the January 2025 report.
Growth in Fresh Categories
“Perimeter bakery results were slightly stronger,” Roerink observed. Cakes led December sales, although pies, which ranked second in November, slipped to fourth. Pie sales struggled throughout the year, with unit sales down 6% for 2024.
Of the 13 fresh bakery categories tracked, six achieved dollar sales growth in December. Croissants posted the largest increase, rising 8.1% to $79.4 million, followed by donuts, which grew 4.5% to $135 million. Bagels/bialys (up 1.8% to $36.5 million), cookies (up 1.7% to $321 million), pastries and Danish (up 0.6% to $174 million), and muffins (up 0.1% to $112 million) also saw gains.
Categories with the largest December declines included brownies and bars (down 9.4% to $35.8 million), tortillas and wraps (down 6.7% to $28.9 million), and specialty desserts (down 4.5% to $11.1 million). Pies, bread, cakes, and buns/rolls also reported decreases.
In terms of unit volume, croissants (up 7.8%), cookies (up 4.4%), and bread (up 3.9%) showed the most significant December growth. Conversely, brownies and bars (down 9.8%), specialty desserts (down 7.3%), and tortillas and wraps (down 7%) experienced the steepest declines.
2024 Annual Performance
For the full year, perimeter bakery categories fared better, with eight categories posting dollar growth. Croissants led the gains (up 6.6% to $963 million), followed by donuts (up 6.5% to $1.8 billion). Other dollar gainers included muffins (up 3.2% to $1.5 billion), buns and rolls (up 3.1% to $1.3 billion), brownies and bars (up 3% to $421 million), bagels/bialys (up 1.6% to $459 million), cookies (up 0.8% to $3.2 billion), and cakes (up 0.7% to $6.1 billion).
Categories with declining dollar sales included specialty desserts (down 6.3% to $132 million), pies (down 4.4% to $1.3 billion), pastries and Danish (down 1.1% to $1.9 billion), tortillas and wraps (down 1.1% to $406 million), and bread (down 0.3% to $1.7 billion).
Unit growth for 2024 was led by bread (up 6.6%), croissants (up 4.6%), and muffins (up 3.3%). Meanwhile, unit declines were most pronounced for specialty desserts (down 6.7%), pies (down 6%), and bagels/bialys (down 2.1%).
Roerink concluded: “Croissants have continued their impressive performance, with strong results in both December and the full year. Other standout performers include cookies, donuts, bread, muffins, buns/rolls, and brownies, reflecting shifting consumer preferences toward these categories.”
Summary
The report highlights a mixed performance for bakery sales in 2024, with growth driven by fresh bakery departments, particularly croissants, cookies, and donuts. However, challenges remain for categories such as pies, specialty desserts, and tortillas.
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